The short version. Texas wholesale power is priced twice: the day before (day-ahead) and again as the day happens (real-time). ERCOT's own files for Nov 1–3, 2026 show the two daily averages landing as far apart as $16.12 per MWh at the same hub. On Nov 3, the South Hub's real-time average was $79.55 against $63.43 day-ahead, while Houston's came in $14.27 under. Wholesale prices are not a retail rate. Below: the numbers, who they touch, and what they do not tell us. Our calculations are labeled.
What ERCOT's files show
We rechecked three days of our Texas Power Pulse editions against ERCOT's day-ahead and real-time price files. Each figure is a daily average at an ERCOT trading hub. "Real-time minus day-ahead" is our calculation, made from the rounded averages shown.
- Sun Nov 1 (a 25-hour day, as clocks fell back): small gaps. West was +$0.05 and Houston +$6.64.
- Mon Nov 2: Houston real-time averaged $52.70 against $37.90 day-ahead (+$14.80). Its highest 15-minute price was $276.19, for the interval ending 4:30 p.m. North, South and West all averaged lower than day-ahead.
- Tue Nov 3: South +$16.12. Houston −$14.27, North −$11.88 and West −$8.30.
One day, several published numbers
For the Houston Hub on Nov 3, ERCOT's 15-minute settlement point price mean is $50.00 and ERCOT's 5-minute LMP mean is $50.37. A third-party site we cited in our own Nov 4 edition, Ask the Grid, showed $50.37, the same as ERCOT's 5-minute mean. At the West Hub, that site's $49.25 covered only part of the day (through 22:35 CST). ERCOT's 5-minute mean for the same window is also $49.25; for the full day it is $50.16, against ERCOT's 15-minute full-day mean of $49.11. The differences are products (15-minute prices versus 5-minute prices) and intervals (part of a day versus a full day). Our Nov 4 edition now cites ERCOT's own files.
Nov 4, overnight: West stood apart
Over the 32 fifteen-minute intervals ending 12:15 a.m. through 8:00 a.m. on Nov 4, West load-zone real-time prices averaged $79.93 against $31.63 for North (our calculation). At 1:45 a.m. West was $97.90 and North $32.60, a $65.30 gap. ERCOT's day-ahead file for Nov 4 puts the West Hub at $48.66 for the full day against $35.36 for North. Those two sets are not comparable: different markets, hubs versus load zones, 24 hours versus eight. We found no ERCOT statement explaining the overnight gap.
Who it touched
A household on a fixed-rate plan. Your energy price per kWh stays the same for the contract term, so none of these swings change it, apart from the TDU, ERCOT-fee and legal-change pass-throughs its Electricity Facts Label allows (wholesale prices vs. home bills). A fixed rate does not promise a lower bill, and your price can change when the term ends.
Anyone on an index or variable plan. An index contract can pass wholesale prices through, under the terms of the contract, and which price applies (hub or load zone, day-ahead or real-time) is set there. PUCT rules bar offering indexed products to residential and small commercial customers on or after Feb 1, 2022 (16 TAC §25.475(c)(3)(F)). A variable-price plan's price follows a method the retailer determines, not necessarily wholesale prices. We collected no plan terms, so we cannot say what any customer paid.
ERCOT, the grid operator. ERCOT posts both sets of prices. We found no ERCOT notice explaining the Nov 1–3 gaps. Our reading: a gap between a price set the day before and one set as the day happens is not surprising in itself, but we did not measure how large a typical gap is.
What we do not know
- Why Houston spiked in the interval ending 4:30 p.m. on Nov 2.
- Why South averaged above day-ahead on Nov 3 while the other three hubs came in below.
- Why West priced higher than North overnight on Nov 4.
- What any retail plan cost anyone. We collected no plan prices.
What it means if you shop
A wholesale swing and a fixed-rate plan's energy price are separate things. Compare plans on each plan's Electricity Facts Label at your own usage. Compare plans for your ZIP at powerhopper.energy. Power Hopper is a PUCT-registered broker, BR260201; electricity providers may pay us a commission if you sign up through us.
Sources
- ERCOT, Day-Ahead Market Settlement Point Prices (NP4-190-CD), files for Nov 1–4, 2026 delivery, including the Nov 4 delivery page.
- ERCOT, Real-Time Settlement Point Prices for Nov 1, Nov 2, Nov 3 and Nov 4, 2026 (Nov 4 as downloaded at 9:25 a.m. CST).
- ERCOT, LMPs by Resource Nodes, Load Zones and Trading Hubs (NP6-788-CD), 5-minute files for Nov 3, 2026.
- Power Hopper, Texas Power Pulse editions of Nov 1–4, 2026.
- Ask the Grid, Houston, North and West Hub price pages: a third-party site (secondary), cited for the Nov 3 Houston, North and West Hub averages it published; the Houston and North figures equal ERCOT's 5-minute means, and the West figure covers part of the day.
- Power Hopper, Texas wholesale electricity prices.
Power Hopper (BJW Ventures LLC d/b/a Power Hopper) is a PUCT-registered electricity broker, BR260201; registration is not a PUCT endorsement. Electricity providers may pay us a commission if you sign up through us. Power Hopper is not a retail electric provider, utility or transmission and distribution utility, and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the PUCT, ERCOT or any utility, supplier or data provider named above. This brief was prepared with AI assistance. Reviewed by Brent Ward on November 4, 2026. BJW Ventures LLC is paid by the retail electric provider, or by an enrollment platform that is paid by that provider, if you enroll through a path that pays us a commission; you are not charged a broker fee by us.
BJW Ventures LLC d/b/a Power Hopper, PUCT Registered Electricity Broker BR260201