Yesterday's prices.
Today's Houston premium.
On Nov 1, ERCOT's official full-day real-time hub averages were Houston $41.12, North $30.95, South $38.31 and West $29.22/MWh (100 fifteen-minute intervals on the daylight-saving change day). For Nov 2 delivery, Houston's published day-ahead hub is $37.90/MWh while West drops to $14.47/MWh. By 08:00, official real-time settlement shows an even sharper regional split. This is a congestion-and-basis story, not a verified statewide reserve emergency.
TODAY / Nov 2 DAM for delivery · Houston $37.90 · North $24.83 · South $31.24 · West $14.47 [Nov 1 17:38 published, ERCOT-derived secondary]
TODAY / Nov 2 actual at 08:00 · Houston $25.41 · North $7.82 · South $16.85 · West −$1.09 [ERCOT official 15-min SPP]
Five signals that matter
KPI sourcing: ERCOT RT SPP [13]; DAM derived from ERCOT by Compute Screener [14]; seven-day MTLF proxy [7]; ENGIE/CME futures [4]. These are wholesale values—not retail supply offers.
Wholesale prices: the spread is the story
ERCOT official real-time hub averages, Nov 1
| Hub | Mean $/MWh | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Houston | $41.12 | 100 fifteen-minute intervals |
| North | $30.95 | 100 fifteen-minute intervals |
| South | $38.31 | 100 fifteen-minute intervals |
| West | $29.22 | 100 fifteen-minute intervals |
Unweighted average of ERCOT's official 15-minute real-time settlement point prices for Nov 1 (100 intervals on the daylight-saving change day). Official table
Published day-ahead auction, 24h averages
| Hub | Nov 1 DA | Nov 2 DA | Change $/MWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | $34.48 | $37.90 | +3.42 |
| North | $29.00 | $24.83 | -4.17 |
| South | $36.65 | $31.24 | -5.41 |
| West | $29.17 | $14.47 | -14.70 |
Same provider/method across two delivery dates; Nov 1 snapshot and Nov 2 auction updated Nov 1 at 17:38. Official selected-day display was not extractable. Secondary daily-average table
Day-ahead price change at each hub
Nov 2 Houston–West = $23.43/MWh (Houston 2.62× West); Nov 1 Houston–West = $5.31/MWh. The day-ahead regional premium expanded by $18.12/MWh. This is a comparison of two regional prices. Source: ERCOT-derived DAM
32 settlement intervals: hub price curves
| Hub | 00:15–08:00 mean | Observed low | Observed high | At 08:00 | DA full-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | $26.42 | $23.57 | $33.08 | $25.41 | $37.90 |
| North | $11.06 | $7.82 | $15.79 | $7.82 | $24.83 |
| South | $19.31 | $15.92 | $22.51 | $16.85 | $31.24 |
| West | $-0.00 | $-1.78 | $0.79 | $-1.09 | $14.47 |
Calculated unweighted average across 32 equal 15-minute intervals from ERCOT official settlement display, published 08:02 CST; low/high apply only to the observed period, not Nov 2 as a whole. DAM is a full-day average; comparing it with partial RT is descriptive only, not a settlement surprise. Official table
At 08:00 · Load zones differ from hubs
| Region | Hub | Load zone | LZ − Hub |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | $25.41 | $32.81 | +7.40 |
| North | $7.82 | $9.54 | +1.72 |
| South | $16.85 | $17.00 | +0.15 |
| West | $-1.09 | $-1.70 | -0.61 |
Houston LZ is $7.40/MWh above its hub at the 08:00 settlement; compare the actual utility's load zone, not a hub, for an indexed commercial customer. [13]
Houston minus West hub · official observed interval. At the same time, North minus West = $8.91/MWh, and South minus West = $17.94/MWh.
The West Hub printed −$1.09/MWh and West load zone −$1.70/MWh at 08:00. Negative prices can occur with generation and transfer limits; a constraint's exact ID and shadow price are not verified in this edition. [13],[8]
Load, weather, reserves & transmission
Seven-day expected peak demand (Ask the Grid, ERCOT-derived)
Today 66,425.56 MW at hour beginning 15:00 CST; tomorrow 59,067.18 MW at 15:00 (−7,358.38 MW / −11.1%). In Ask the Grid's forecast (vintages Nov 1 23:30 and Nov 2 02:30), Nov 2 is the highest daily peak of the Nov 2–8 window and Nov 7 the lowest at 51.46 GW. This is an ERCOT-data-derived reproduction with explicit vintage, not a directly fetched current ERCOT CSV. Ask the Grid forecast
Nov 2 forecast high, NWS Fort Worth issuance 02:07 CST
Nov 2 forecast high, then 73°F Tuesday
NWS Austin/San Antonio 04:08 CST
From 66.43 GW Monday to 59.07 GW Tuesday forecast
Weather is warmer than a typical early-November backdrop; elevated Monday afternoon cooling load is consistent with, not proof of, demand-driven price risk. NWS forecast
Operating reserves
No contemporaneous ERCOT official physical responsive-capability figure extracted by 08:00. Do not treat modeled planning reserve margin as 08:00 operating reserves. [6],[10]
Generation outages
Dashboard accessed, but live forced/planned outage MW could not be read. No unverified outage total or claim of a generation shortage. [11]
Gas & forward curves: spot softness, winter optionality
December 2026 Henry Hub, $/MMBtu · prior settle $2.898, +$0.045 (+1.55%). Observed during Monday pre-08:00 reporting; exact tick time not printed. [4]
January 2027 over December 2026 per MMBtu ($3.421 vs $2.943). 7 MMBtu/MWh heat-rate illustration implies $3.35/MWh higher fuel input in January if that heat rate and these futures prices applied. Excludes gas basis, transport, costs. [4]
Forward signals: supplier curves are dated views, not executable offers
- NextEra Energy Services, Oct 28 Energy Pulse: ERCOT annual 2026 $39.33/MWh, −$2.43/MWh over two weeks (Cal26 curve softening; not a Nov 2 spot price). Henry Hub annual 2026 $2.99/MMBtu, −$0.26/MMBtu over two weeks.
- Vistra/TXU Energy weekly update (PDF dated Oct 9, marks as of Oct 8): ERCOT North Cal2027 $47.27/MWh (−$1.54 vs about three months earlier); Houston Cal2027 $48.67/MWh (−$1.59), $1.40/MWh above North. A stale view, not a Nov 2 Cal27 quote.
- ENGIE, Nov 2 CME futures page: Henry Hub Jan 2027 $3.421/MMBtu, +$0.050 vs prior settle (winter premium extends beyond December).
NextEra Oct 28 PDF p1; Vistra Oct 9 PDF p1; ENGIE CME futures HTML. Vistra's linked PDF is Oct 9 even though its landing advertises Oct 23: a publisher freshness mismatch. [1],[4],[5]
Positioning, generation & regulatory context
Gas managed money: sizable weekly short shift
NYMEX natural-gas futures-only managed-money net contracts = 198,900 long − 405,217 short; weekly net change −48,908 contracts because longs declined 3,670 and shorts rose 45,238. This is an Oct 27 weekly snapshot, not today's position. [17]
Electricity positioning: not a blanket ERCOT wager
Selected Nodal Exchange contract managed-money net position: 0 long, 2,010 short; weekly net change −1,060 MWh. Different ERCOT contracts report different volumes and units and should not be aggregated without contract normalization. [18]
Generator / infrastructure intelligence
RWE (Aug 2026 Factbook p76) maps US projects including Big Star 80 MW battery, Bright Arrow 100 MW battery and Hickory Park 40 MW battery, while its p82 portfolio shows 1.7 GW global battery capacity as of Dec 31, 2025. These are capacity disclosures, not today's Texas output. RWE's Nov 11 scheduled nine-month results are a date watch, not an already published 2026 Q3 result. [16]
Calpine (Oct 29 weekly PDF p1) sees October ERCOT spot prices in the upper $30s/MWh and about 20% above October 2025; this is an Oct 29 dated supplier commentary, not today's realized ERCOT average. NRG (Oct 30) noted December gas pressure following the +80 Bcf injection. [15],[3]
Transmission and PUCT: No verified Nov 2 constraint shadow price or fresh change in ERCOT trading rules with a demonstrated price impact was recovered; refrain from asserting that a recent policy change caused the morning basis. [8],[12]
Retail plans
Retail plan prices change daily and depend on ZIP code, usage and contract terms. This report does not list retail plans or prices. A one-day wholesale hub spread cannot be turned into a current residential cent/kWh bill reduction. To compare current plans, use each plan's Electricity Facts Label (EFL) or the PUCT's Power to Choose website, powertochoose.org.
Four lenses: quantified implications
Wholesale discounts aren't automatic bill discounts
Local basis changes the shape of procurement risk
Two dates and two settlement locations matter
Winter gas steepening plus local energy price dispersion
Risks & next verification windows
Comparisons: Nov 1 vs Nov 2 DAM is directly consistent as two hub daily means from one secondary provider; rolling 7- and 30-day DAM columns exist on that provider but were not time-stable in fetched page output, so comparative numerical changes are not established. No verified day-ahead hourly high/low or peak-hour basis from official auction CSV was retrieved by cutoff.
Sources & references
Numbered primary landing/data sources (all 18 assessed separately; PDF content read when available). Dates are the underlying publication or observation dates, not today's retrieval date. Secondary sources explicitly labeled below. Click reports for original tables and cited pages.
- Vistra Weekly update; landing advertises Oct 23, linked PDF actually week ending Oct 9 (mismatch).
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
PDF read: pages 1–3, stale 24 days; weekly. - Constellation Week of Oct 26 commodity fundamentals, $2.60 Nov gas Oct 26; 2027–31 strips.
Landing / source
Article contents read; weekly, 7 days old. - NRG Oct 30 morning; Dec gas $2.85 screen / Oct 29 close $2.95; EIA 80 Bcf vs 72 forecast.
Landing / source
Articles contents read; business-daily; latest Oct 30. - ENGIE Nov 2 04:15 ERCOT hub table conflicts with ERCOT SPP field mapping; Nov 2 Dec gas 2.943.
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
HTML tables read; gas live snapshot Nov 2; reject mismapped power hub row. - NextEra Oct 28 Energy Pulse: Cal26 ERCOT $39.33/MWh (−$2.43 two weeks); HH Cal26 $2.99 (−$0.26).
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
PDF read/screenshot page 1 of 4; biweekly, 5 days old. - ERCOT grid conditions Grid/reserves dashboard dynamically rendered; numeric live cells inaccessible here.
Landing / source
Landing read; dynamic totals inaccessible; reserve unverified. - ERCOT load Public seven-day forecast report NP3-560-CD metadata; direct files list empty in text reader.
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
Report metadata read; values corroborated separately via ERCOT-derived archive. - ERCOT transmission Transmission landing accessed; no Nov 2 constraint/shadow price extract accessible.
Landing / source
Landing read only; specific constraint unverified. - ERCOT dashboard index Dashboard index accessed; JavaScript tiles show Loading.
Landing / source
Index read; real-time data not directly exposed. - ERCOT supply/demand Supply-demand dashboard inspected, JS datapoints not exposed.
Landing / source
Landing read; reserve/supply MW not verified. - ERCOT outages Generation outages panel inspected; total MW not directly exposed.
Landing / source
Landing read; Nov 2 outage MW not verified. - ERCOT prices Market-price catalogue exposes DAM/RTM reports and history, report tables not fetched.
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
Description read; primary Nov 2 DAM CSV inaccessible; proxy clearly flagged. - ERCOT RT SPP Official Nov 2 00:15–08:00 15-min SPP: 32 intervals, 4 hubs plus zones.
Landing / source
ALL 32 relevant rows read; direct official, Nov 2 08:02 update. - ERCOT DAM SPP Default display incorrectly says current auction not completed; Nov 2 delivery DAM from Nov 1 auction corroborated elsewhere.
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
Default HTML read; selected Nov 2 official table inaccessible; secondary Nov 1 17:38 publication. - Calpine Oct 29 weekly market PDF; 80 Bcf storage and ERCOT mix graph.
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
One-page PDF fully read/screenshotted; 4 days old. - RWE Aug 2026 factbook 118 pages, pp76,82: US renewable/storage projects and 1.7 GW batteries worldwide.
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
Report contents read relevant pages with screenshots; quarterly/annual IR; August. - CFTC COT index Oct 27 positions (released Oct 30); direct NG and electricity disaggregated reports.
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
Index and natural-gas positions read; weekly positions Oct 27. - CFTC Public Reporting Interactive dashboard supplied no readable text. Use standard CFTC electricity long report.
Landing / source · Underlying report or data
Dashboard inaccessible; parallel direct CFTC electricity report read; weekly Oct 27.
Additional verification & secondary data (not counted in the 18)
- EIA / Weekly storage · Source/data
Oct 29 release / Oct 23 observation: 3,724 Bcf, +80 Bcf, vs 5-year +38 Bcf. - NWS / Texas seven-day tabular forecast · Source/data
Nov 2 02:07–04:08 CST forecasts: Dallas 87°F, DFW 86°F, Austin 86°F. - Compute Screener / ERCOT DAM-derived · Source/data
Nov 1 17:38 CST update for Nov 2 delivery: 4 hub 24-hour daily averages. Secondary source. - Ask the Grid / ERCOT MTLF-derived · Source/data
Nov 1 23:30 / Nov 2 02:30 CST vintages: seven daily peak forecasts; secondary source. - Power to Choose · Source/data
Referenced for plan comparison; no plan data is used in this report.
Methods: Only ERCOT's 15-min SPP table supplies same-day morning hub and load-zone observations (through 08:00); the Nov 2 official date-selected DAM CSV was not extractable in this run (Nov 1 full-day figures come from ERCOT's official Nov 1 15-minute SPP file). Four hub DAM means therefore come from ERCOT-derived Compute Screener's dated 17:38 Nov 1 capture, and MTLF from Ask the Grid's dated reproductions. Engie's 04:15 ERCOT power table appears mislabeled relative to ERCOT's simultaneous SPP columns; the conflicting hub labels were rejected. Real-time supplier forwards are informational indicative snapshots, never binding quotes. All illustrative $ calculations ignore taxes, supplier margins, network charges, credit, tariffs and bid-ask execution unless stated.