Yesterday's cheap power.
Today's evening premium.
Friday, November 6, 2026 · Morning 8:00 a.m. Central cutoff
MORNING INTELLIGENCE · PARTIAL MARKET COVERAGEValidated insights from supplier reports and ERCOT and EIA datasets. ERCOT files were retrieved at 08:40 a.m. CST, after the 8:00 cutoff; the prices shown are for intervals and day-ahead hours that preceded it, and any later retrieval is labeled.
01 / Top signals that survived verification
Nov 5 delivery to Nov 6 delivery, an increase of $16.23/MWh. "On-peak" is the average of hours ending 7 through 22. Day-ahead prices, not realized settlement. The Nov 5 figure matches the one in NRG's Nov 5 update. [7] [11] [4]
West Hub, the highest hub price of the day. Every hub peaks in this hour: North $69.15, Houston $66.03, South $76.75. [7]
U.S. gas storage injection, 2 Bcf below the 79 Bcf market consensus cited in NRG's Nov 5 update. Actual versus supplier expectation, not a price move. [2] [4]
54 Bcf above the 5-year average (3,747) and 109 Bcf below year-ago (3,910). National storage, not Texas alone. [2]
02 / Yesterday realized vs today planned
Yesterday, Nov 5 · realized real-time (ERCOT)
ERCOT's Nov 5 real-time table lists 95 of the day's 96 15-minute intervals (it has no row for the interval ending 17:45). Simple averages of those 95 intervals: North $20.28, Houston $31.20, South $31.62, West $19.23 $/MWh. North and West were negative in some intervals (lows of −$5.14 and −$4.04). These are unweighted averages of published prices, not a settlement or a bill. [10]
Today, Nov 6 · cleared day-ahead (ERCOT)
ERCOT's day-ahead file for Nov 6, set in the day-ahead market before the operating day, shows 24-hour hub averages of North $35.66, Houston $38.86, South $43.02 and West $45.01 $/MWh. West is $9.35 above North on the 24-hour average. Every hub's highest hour is hour ending 18. Day-ahead prices are not real-time prices; real-time can differ in either direction. [7]
| $/MWh | North hub | Houston hub | South hub | West hub |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 real-time, average of 95 intervals | 20.28 | 31.20 | 31.62 | 19.23 |
| Nov 5 day-ahead, 24-hour average | 19.86 | 32.16 | 36.56 | 19.39 |
| Nov 6 day-ahead, 24-hour average | 35.66 | 38.86 | 43.02 | 45.01 |
| Nov 6 day-ahead, on-peak (hours ending 7–22) | 33.97 | 38.61 | 41.91 | 43.31 |
| Nov 6 day-ahead, hour ending 18 (5–6 p.m.) | 69.15 | 66.03 | 76.75 | 87.46 |
Averages computed by Power Hopper from ERCOT's published hourly day-ahead and 15-minute real-time settlement point prices. On-peak = hours ending 7–22. Hour ending 18 covers 5:00–6:00 p.m. CST. [7] [10] [11]
Nov 6 day-ahead hourly hub prices
Source: ERCOT day-ahead market settlement point prices for Nov 6, hourly. [7]
Nov 6 real-time wholesale: selected intraday intervals
Source: ERCOT 15-minute real-time settlement point prices, $/MWh. Sampled intervals ending 00:15 through 07:30 CST, plotted at their true times; not a daily average and not 5-minute prices. The ERCOT table was retrieved at 08:40 a.m., after the 8:00 cutoff, so we cannot prove when each earlier interval was first posted. [1]
| Interval ending (CST) | North hub | Houston hub | South hub | West hub |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:15 | 34.43 | 31.52 | 37.76 | 35.15 |
| 01:00 | 32.68 | 29.92 | 36.95 | 34.97 |
| 02:00 | 31.58 | 30.60 | 32.70 | 31.84 |
| 03:00 | 31.64 | 34.72 | 31.45 | 32.56 |
| 04:00 | 29.49 | 32.85 | 28.75 | 29.46 |
| 05:00 | 32.23 | 39.19 | 30.64 | 31.95 |
| 06:00 | 35.33 | 40.91 | 34.05 | 35.10 |
| 07:00 | 35.68 | 36.07 | 35.59 | 35.67 |
| 07:30 | 31.18 | 32.51 | 30.87 | 31.12 |
By 07:30, Houston's $32.51/MWh was $1.33/MWh above North ($31.18), while South was $0.31 below North and West was $0.06 below North. This describes only the 07:30 interval; a small spread at one timestamp is not evidence of a congestion-free day. At 00:15, South was $3.33 above North.
03 / Weather, resources and the next 24 hours
Constellation's Nov 2 weekly outlook expected daily average ERCOT wind to fall from roughly 14 GW on Nov 5 to about 6 GW during Nov 6–9, with solar steady near 6 GW. ERCOT's own fuel-mix data, retrieved at 08:41 a.m., show wind averaging 13.9 GW on Nov 5 (the average of 285 published 5-minute readings) and 9.3 GW from midnight to 8:00 a.m. Nov 6, down to 7.7 GW at 08:00. That is a decline, but the full-day Nov 6 average is not yet known, so the outlook's 6 GW is not confirmed. A lower wind output can mean more thermal generation is needed if demand and outages otherwise stay the same. The official current-day load-forecast graphic was last updated at 07:15, but its underlying numbers could not be extracted, so no 7-day peak or reserve margin is quoted. [3] [12] [9]
Vistra's weekly Oct 30 snapshot showed October load-zone real-time averages of North $34.27, Houston $39.38, South $40.40 and West $42.86/MWh. These are October 2026 monthly averages from the PDF's page 1, not Nov 5 daily prices. Over the same month Vistra listed zonal congestion averages of North $1.41, Houston $1.94, South $3.58 and West $4.76/MWh; these old averages cannot explain a particular Nov 6 price difference. [5]
04 / Gas and forward power: what the dated releases say
EIA supply buffer
3,801 Bcf storage
Week ended Oct 30 versus Oct 23: +77 Bcf; versus the 5-year level +54 Bcf; versus last year −109 Bcf. The injection was 2 Bcf smaller than NRG's 79 Bcf consensus, slightly tighter than expected, but one weekly surprise does not imply a lasting change in retail offers. [2] [4]
NYMEX benchmark, correctly dated
$2.959/MMBtu
NRG's Nov 5 update (page 1) reports the Dec 2026 contract settled at $2.959 on Nov 4, up $0.064 on the day. Its 12-month strip is $2.864/MMBtu, and its indicated Nov 5 quote was about $2.96. This is not a verified Nov 6 price. [4]
ERCOT forward region & tenor
$45.16 / $46.97
Vistra's Oct 29 Cal 2027 7x24 forward prices for North and Houston ($/MWh), a $1.81 Houston premium. On Oct 28, North was $45.40 and Houston $47.10, so the daily changes were −$0.24 and −$0.13/MWh. These are dated supplier indicative prices, not offers available on Nov 6. [5]
Out-year supplier trend
~2% / 1.1% / 0.5%
Constellation wrote that ERCOT forward prices "declined ~2% for 2027, -1.1% for 2028 and 0.5% for 2029" over the week ending Oct 31. The text does not state a sign for the 2029 figure, so we do not read it as an increase. The data are a week old, not a Friday strip. [3]
05 / Four audiences: what the numbers mean
Residential consumers
Measured: EIA storage +77 Bcf, 54 Bcf above the five-year level; Vistra's Oct 29 Cal 2027 North price down $0.24/MWh on the day; Constellation's outlook of about 8 GW less wind on Nov 6 than Nov 5; ERCOT day-ahead hub averages of $35.66 to $45.01/MWh for Nov 6. Meaning: mixed fundamentals; one day of wholesale prices does not set a new retail offer, and an existing fixed-rate plan's price does not follow the daily wholesale price. For scale, $1/MWh is 0.1¢/kWh before losses and retail margin. Plan-specific bills need verified Electricity Facts Labels, which this report does not use.
Commercial electricity buyers
Measured: Vistra's Oct 29 Cal 2027 Houston–North forward premium of $1.81/MWh; ERCOT's Nov 6 day-ahead West–North 24-hour gap of $9.35/MWh; North day-ahead on-peak of $17.74 for Nov 5 and $33.97 for Nov 6. Meaning: a 2027 all-hours forward premium and a one-day on-peak settlement cover different periods and should not be compared. Index and block-and-index contracts keep only their uncovered interval exposure, while fixed-price contracts ordinarily do not pass daily prices through.
Electricity brokers
Measured: At 00:15, ENGIE's South Hub display showed $34.94 against ERCOT's $37.76/MWh, and its South Load Zone $34.44 against ERCOT's $45.18. ERCOT's Nov 5 file shows the South Load Zone averaging $86.98/MWh (high $166.40 in the interval ending 04:00, when South Hub was $13.79) against a South Hub average of $31.62. Meaning: verify the settlement point and its source before using any feed in client analysis. A hub price and a load-zone price can differ by a large amount on the same day. This is exposure to data errors, not a realized overcharge.
Power, gas, battery investors
Measured: EIA injection of 77 Bcf against a 79 Bcf consensus; national inventory 109 Bcf below year-ago; Vistra's Oct 29 Cal 2027 North price of $45.16/MWh; the Nov 6 day-ahead spread between hour ending 18 and the 24-hour average (North $33.49, West $42.45/MWh); a wind outlook roughly 8 GW lower. Meaning: watch whether real-time evening prices confirm the day-ahead peak. A supplier outlook alone is not a trading signal. Storage outcomes depend on charge timing, location, awards, fees and losses.
06 / Positioning, governance and watchlist
The CFTC text file inspected in this run held position records as of Oct 27. The CFTC says its Commitments of Traders reports are released at 3:30 p.m. Eastern, usually on Friday, with data from the previous Tuesday. Friday Nov 6's release (Nov 3 positions) therefore was not available at the morning cutoff, and this report does not assert positioning for it. Weekly Tuesday positions are not a daily indicator. [8] [13]
Watch the real-time prices for hour ending 18 against the day-ahead peaks, the 7-day load vintage, active congestion shadow-price reports, West transmission constraints, outage MW and battery discharge if official values become accessible, plus the pending CFTC release. No cause is attributed to a specific transmission outage without an official matching constraint record.
07 / Sources & references
- ERCOT real-time settlement point prices, Nov 6 2026 (15-minute table, retrieved 08:40 CST)
- EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage report (JSON), released Nov 5; week ended Oct 30
- Constellation weekly commodity and ERCOT outlook, week of Nov 2
- NRG Nov 5 daily market update (PDF): page 1 gas and storage consensus, page 2 Nov 5 day-ahead prices
- Vistra (TXU Energy) ERCOT weekly market update, week ending Oct 30 (PDF)
- ENGIE Resources "Today's Pricing" display, Nov 6 (00:15 ERCOT interval)
- ERCOT day-ahead market settlement point prices, Nov 6 2026 (retrieved 08:40 CST)
- CFTC Commitments of Traders, disaggregated futures-only text file; latest records as of Oct 27, 2026
- ERCOT current-day load forecast versus actual chart, last updated 07:15 Nov 6; values not extracted
- ERCOT real-time settlement point prices, Nov 5 2026 (95 of 96 intervals listed)
- ERCOT day-ahead market settlement point prices, Nov 5 2026
- ERCOT fuel mix JSON (5-minute generation by fuel), retrieved 08:41 CST Nov 6
- CFTC Commitments of Traders release schedule
Source index lists only URLs whose contents or page status were inspected. Day-ahead and real-time hub averages are Power Hopper calculations from ERCOT's published tables. This is a partial morning intelligence report, not a final settlement report.