Illustrative Texas EFL Math Scenarios • November 2026
Illustrative Texas Electricity Savings Scenarios: How EFL Math Affects Your Bill
Why can two Texas homes with the same square footage and the same local delivery utility pay $30 to $110 per month different for electricity? Below are four illustrative mathematical scenarios modeled on official 2026 PUCT-approved TDU delivery tariffs and actual Texas EFL structures—showing how bill-credit cliffs, expired contract holdover rates, and apartment minimum-usage fees inflate bills.
Verification & Regulatory Disclosure (Illustrative Model Classification): The four scenarios below are illustrative mathematical examples, not historical records of individual customer accounts. Every calculation separates the Retail Electric Provider (REP) energy charge from the official 2026 PUCT-approved TDU delivery pass-through (Oncor Electric Delivery: $4.23/mo + 5.1823¢/kWh; CenterPoint Energy: $4.90/mo + 5.3504¢/kWh) so TDU delivery charges are never double-counted. Actual bills and potential savings depend on your five-digit ZIP code, monthly kWh usage, current contract rate, and early termination fee terms.
Summary of Four Illustrative Texas EFL Bill Scenarios (2026 Tariffs)
| Illustrative Scenario & TDU | Modeled Monthly Usage | Baseline Plan (REP Energy + TDU) | Flat Fixed Plan (REP Energy + TDU) | Modeled ETF | Modeled Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario #1: Benbrook / Fort Worth (Oncor TDU) | 960 kWh mild month (1,180 kWh annual avg) | $100 Bill-Credit Plan: 16.18¢ energy ($155.30) + $53.98 Oncor TDU = $209.28 (21.80¢/kWh) | Flat Fixed Plan: 7.78¢ energy ($74.66) + $53.98 Oncor TDU = $128.64 (13.40¢/kWh) | $0 (within 14-day contract expiration window) | $80.64/mo on 960 kWh month ($542.40/yr modeled) |
| Scenario #2: Houston / Tomball (CenterPoint TDU) | 1,450 kWh/mo 12-month average | Variable Holdover: 15.71¢ energy ($227.82) + $82.48 CenterPoint TDU = $310.30/mo (21.40¢/kWh) | Flat Fixed Plan: 8.01¢ energy ($116.17) + $82.48 CenterPoint TDU = $198.65/mo (13.70¢/kWh) | $0 (month-to-month holdover has no ETF) | $111.65/mo ($1,339.80/yr modeled) |
| Scenario #3: Irving Apartment (Oncor TDU) | 550 kWh/mo (1-bedroom apartment) | Min-Usage Fee Plan: 11.74¢ energy ($64.57) + $9.95 fee + $32.73 Oncor TDU = $107.25/mo (19.50¢/kWh) | Flat Fixed Plan: 8.15¢ energy ($44.82) + $0 fee + $32.73 Oncor TDU = $77.55/mo (14.10¢/kWh) | $0 (new lease move-in / renewal) | $29.70/mo ($356.40/yr modeled) |
| Scenario #4: Arlington Home (Oncor TDU) | 1,850 kWh/mo (4-bedroom home, 7 mos left) | Peak Fixed Contract: 12.19¢ energy ($225.50) + $100.10 Oncor TDU = $325.60/mo (17.60¢/kWh) | Flat Fixed Plan: 7.79¢ energy ($144.10) + $100.10 Oncor TDU = $244.20/mo (13.20¢/kWh) | $150.00 flat ETF (1.84-month payback) | +$419.80 net over 7 remaining months after $150 ETF |
Illustrative Scenario #1: Escaping a 999 kWh Bill-Credit Cliff in Benbrook (Oncor Territory)
- Modeled Household Profile: Townhome in Benbrook, TX (Oncor Electric Delivery) comparing a tiered $100 bill-credit plan (advertised at 11.9¢/kWh at exactly 1,000 kWh) against a condition-free flat fixed-rate plan.
- How the Bill-Credit Cliff Works: At 960 kWh in a mild spring or fall month, Oncor delivery charges are identical under both plans:
$4.23 + (960 × $0.051823) = $53.98. However, missing the 1,000 kWh threshold by 40 kWh forfeits the $100 credit, leaving the household with a 16.18¢/kWh REP energy charge ($155.30) +$53.98Oncor TDU = $209.28 (21.80¢/kWh effective). - Flat Fixed-Rate Comparison: Under a condition-free 12-month fixed plan with a 7.78¢/kWh REP energy charge (
$74.66at 960 kWh) + the same$53.98Oncor TDU charge, the 960 kWh bill is $128.64 (13.40¢/kWh effective). - Modeled Outcome: Saves $80.64 in a 960 kWh shoulder month (and $542.40 across a modeled 12-month seasonal curve where six mild months fall below 1,000 kWh). Test your own usage in our Bill-Credit Cliff Analyzer.
Illustrative Scenario #2: Resetting an Expired 21.4¢/kWh Holdover Rate in Houston (CenterPoint Territory)
- Modeled Household Profile: Single-family home in the Greater Houston / Tomball area (CenterPoint Energy territory) using 1,450 kWh/month on average after a fixed contract expires into a month-to-month holdover product.
- Holdover Rate Breakdown: At 1,450 kWh, CenterPoint delivery is
$4.90 + (1,450 × $0.053504) = $82.48. A typical 15.71¢/kWh holdover energy charge adds$227.82, bringing the total monthly bill to $310.30/month (21.40¢/kWh all-in). - Flat Fixed-Rate Comparison: Replacing the holdover rate with an 8.01¢/kWh fixed energy charge (
$116.17) + the same$82.48CenterPoint delivery charge yields $198.65/month (13.70¢/kWh all-in) with $0 early termination fee on the expired holdover plan. - Modeled Outcome: Reduces modeled electricity cost by $111.65/month ($1,339.80/year). Check your own bill on Power Hopper’s High-Bill Diagnostic.
Illustrative Scenario #3: Eliminating Apartment Minimum-Usage Penalties in Irving (550 kWh Profile)
- Modeled Renter Profile: 1-bedroom apartment in Irving, TX (Oncor territory) averaging 550 kWh/month. At 550 kWh, Oncor regulated delivery is
$4.23 + (550 × $0.051823) = $32.73. - Minimum-Usage Penalty Breakdown: A plan carrying an 11.74¢/kWh energy charge (
$64.57) plus a$9.95minimum-usage fee below 1,000 kWh plus$32.73Oncor delivery costs $107.25/month (19.50¢/kWh effective). - Flat Fixed-Rate Comparison: A condition-free fixed plan with an 8.15¢/kWh energy charge (
$44.82), $0 base/minimum-usage fee, and$32.73Oncor delivery costs $77.55/month (14.10¢/kWh effective). - Modeled Outcome: Saves $29.70/month ($356.40/year) at 550 kWh/month. See our Texas Apartment Electricity Guide for 500 kWh shopping rules.
Illustrative Scenario #4: Mid-Contract Early Termination Fee (ETF) Break-Even in Arlington
- Modeled Homeowner Profile: 4-bedroom home in Arlington, TX (Oncor territory) using 1,850 kWh/month with 7 months remaining on a peak fixed contract and a $150 flat early termination fee. At 1,850 kWh, Oncor delivery is
$4.23 + (1,850 × $0.051823) = $100.10. - Break-Even Math: Moving from a 12.19¢/kWh energy charge (
$225.50energy +$100.10Oncor = $325.60/mo, or 17.60¢/kWh) to a 7.79¢/kWh energy charge ($144.10energy +$100.10Oncor = $244.20/mo, or 13.20¢/kWh) reduces the monthly bill by $81.40/month. - Modeled Outcome: The $150 flat ETF pays for itself in 1.84 months (
$150 ÷ $81.40/mo). Across 7 remaining contract months, modeled gross savings of$569.80minus the$150.00ETF equals +$419.80 net savings. Run your own contract numbers in our Switching & ETF Break-Even Calculator.
Test Your Own Electricity Bill Against Current Fixed Rates
Use Power Hopper’s free calculators and diagnostic tools to model your exact monthly kWh usage:
- High Electricity Bill Diagnostic Tool — Check why your Texas electric bill spiked and compare your effective ¢/kWh against current benchmarks.
- Texas Electric Bill Calculator (with 2026 TDU Tariffs) — Calculate your exact monthly bill at any kWh usage level across Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Texas, TNMP, and LP&L.
- Switching & Early Termination Fee Break-Even Calculator — Test your exact contract payoff math in seconds.
- Texas Electricity Provider Directory — Verify PUCT certificates and parent ownership for 27 retail electricity brands.
Last verified November 5, 2026 by Power Hopper (BJW Ventures LLC d/b/a Power Hopper, PUCT Broker Registration BR260201).